Economy

Why quiet ports & bankrupt fleets matter more than the stock market right now

The freight recession is coming for 2025. Container volumes are falling, trucking firms are folding, and recession risks are rising.

Robert Collings

• 3 min read
Why quiet ports & bankrupt fleets matter more than the stock market right now
Photo by Heartbreak G / Unsplash

If you've ever driven I-80 across the Midwest, you know the rhythm: fields, fuel stops, and a steady flow of trucks moving the goods that stock America’s shelves and pantries.

That convoy is more than scenery—it's infrastructure. And right now, it's thinning out.

Freight isn't just a signal—it is the economy

Container volumes don't collapse in isolation of broader economic events. When fewer boxes are moving, it means fewer people are buying, building, or betting on the future. That's where we are in April 2025.

The West Coast ports are quiet—eerily so—and the downstream effects are beginning to ripple. Freight is one of the purest real-time indicators of economic vitality, and right now, it's blinking red.

  • According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, inbound loaded container volumes at Los Angeles and Long Beach are down double digits YoY.
  • Drewry reports that 72 sailings between April 21 and May 25 have been blanked, representing a 10% cancellation rate.

Those aren't minor adjustments. That's demand evaporation.

Blank sailings occur when an ocean carrier cancels a scheduled voyage or skips a port stop. This can happen when demand drops and ships sail partially empty, but also when ports are congested, weather disrupts schedules, or routes are strategically adjusted. The common denominator: fewer containers moving, and a logistics network under stress. This time, it's a recession signal.

Trucking companies are getting squeezed flat

When the containers don't show, neither do the paychecks. J.B. Hunt's Q1 earnings showed an 8% drop in operating income. More worrying: spot rates are below operating costs for many carriers. We're now in the part of the cycle where small operators get crushed first, and the larger ones quietly tighten belts and cancel equipment orders.

Bankruptcies have already begun to pick up. Turk Transportation filed Chapter 11 in February, and it likely won't be the last. The convoy of distress in 2023 was just the opening act. What we're seeing now is systemic margin compression.

In the referenced article, you'll note that the "freight recession" started in 2022. Their optimistic tone is pre-Liberation Day.

COVID was bad and this might be worse

In May 2020, during the height of pandemic-driven uncertainty, the trans-Pacific trade lane saw 51 blank sailings. This April? Over 80. And it's not because ports are congested or ships are stuck—it's because demand is.

Back then, we had a defined crisis. Now, it's more like economic malaise—soft demand, soft prices, soft landings that never quite touch down.

And unlike 2020, there are fewer fiscal safety nets this time. No PPP, no EIDL, and definitely no forgiveness. Owner-operators running freight on I-20 or I-40, are watching margins vanish and diesel cards being maxed.

The real economy lives at the truck stop

This isn't just a logistics story. It's also a small-town economic story. Gas stations, diners, roadside repair shops—they all ride shotgun with freight volumes. When the trucks stop rolling, the service economy in America's freight corridors takes the hit.

That's the part the macro charts can't show: a diner in Tucumcari with no breakfast rush. A tire shop in Barstow with bays sitting idle. These aren’t just anecdotes. They're the backbone of working America.

So what happens next?

The bond market is already sniffing it out. Rates on transportation asset-backed securities have widened, and trucking ABS deals are seeing less interest. If this persists into Q3, expect a rise in defaults on equipment loans, especially among firms with poor resale value fleets.

Commercial real estate isn't immune either. Industrial warehousing tied to freight throughput is at risk of softening rents. Watch the REITs.

And then there's the election-year wildcard. Regulatory whiplash, trade posturing, and rate cut hopes will all play into whether this downturn stays confined to freight or becomes the broader recession no one wants to name yet.

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